Banque de France confirms 0.2% growth for the fourth quarter of 2018



PARIS (More Bank) – The growth of the French economy should slow down to 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, marked by disturbances related to the movement of "yellow jackets", according to the third and last estimate of the Bank of France, published on Friday.

The French central bank, which initially forecast a 0.4% rise in France's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018, had revised its forecast down last month, from 0.4% to 0.2%. %, the impact of the movement of "Yellow Vests" in particular penalized in November industrial production and weighed on the activity of certain sectors in services, such as transport and catering.

The latest edition of the monthly business survey of the Banque de France, which covers the month of December, shows a rise of two points of the indicator of the business climate in the industry, to 103, and a stability from the service indicator to 102 as well as the building indicator, to 105.

In particular, it highlights a much faster increase in industrial production, which had stalled in November, particularly in the aerospace, agri-food and automotive sectors.

The capacity utilization rate, which fell in November to a low since May – marked this year by many "bridges" – rose by 0.2 points in December to 79 , 7%.

The leaders of the industrial companies interviewed, however, believe that activity should slow down in January, says the Bank of France.

At the same time, activity in services showed only a moderate increase in December, slightly accentuating the slowdown that had begun the previous month, as a result of a decline in activities most penalized by the "yellow vests" movement. ", such as accommodation and catering, as well as car repair. On the other hand, business services remained dynamic, observes the Banque de France.

In contrast to their counterparts in the industry, business leaders in the services sector are expecting an acceleration of activity in January.

With regard to the building, activity has resumed, especially in the structural work and faced with fairly well-filled order books, industry professionals expect continued growth in activity in January.

Full survey on the Banque de France website:

Update on the French economy [ECO/FR]

Chart: Key figures of the economy

(Myriam Rivet, edited by Danielle Rouquié)