In the wake of the records of 2017, the year 2018 has been a good growth for the market immovable, despite a slowdown in the activity seen in the nine. In the former, the first figures published by professionals show a good performance of transactions: + 3.9% for the Century 21 network and + 3.1% for the Laforêt network. As a result, the total number of sales should be close to the score of 2017, to 858,000 transactions, according to Notaries. The new, it, appears in decline: in the first nine months of 2018, sales of new homes fell by 9.7%, according to the latest data from the Federation of real estate developers, with a more pronounced downturn in the third quarter. Over 12 rolling months, the decline reached 5.2%.
And yet, the market was supported by extremely favorable credit conditions, while the nine continued to benefit from measures of the Pinel device, allowing to defiscalize part of its acquisition cost in return for a rental at capped rent. Overall, according to the Crédit Logement / CSA Observatory, at 1.45% in autumn, on average, all loan durations combined. "But beware, the demand for home loan has been declining for 18 months according to data from the Bank of France, warns Michel Mouillart, professor of economics at the University of Paris West. The market suffers from the reduction of purchase aids ". Banks remain however lenders, using the mortgage as a lever for acquiring new customers.
Price per square meter: a three-speed market
Prices have meanwhile continued their ascent. In the national trend in the former, they increased by 3.1%, according to the LPI-SeLoger barometer and by 1.7%, according to Century 21: "The average price reached 2.595 € / m², a lower level to the record of 2011, at 2.655 € / m² », says Laurent Vimont, president of the network of real estate agencies. However, these figures do not reflect the disparities observed locally. Real estate operates at three speeds: Paris and Île-de-France, at prices completely disconnected from the rest of the country, then the big dynamic cities, and finally the rest of the territory. One figure shows these distortions: "It takes a household on average six years of income to buy in Ile-de-France against 3.2 years in Auvergne, and even as a household in the Paris region earns 50% more than 'Auvergnat household', calculates Michel Mouillart.
Prices in the former rose in three-quarters of the cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants. Here again the pace of evolution is quite disparate, depending on the dynamism and attractiveness of the municipalities. Prices rose below inflation (between 1% and 2%) in 18% of large cities, such as Grenoble (€ 2,595 / m²), Reims (€ 2,518 / m²), and Marseille (2,965). € / m²), Tours € 2,340 / m²) or Nice (€ 4,210 / m²). They increased by 2 to 3% in Toulon (2,303 € / m²), Nîmes (2,148 € / m²), Strasbourg (3,399 € / m²), Lille (3,248 € / m²)) or Toulouse (3 138 € / m²). In a third of the big cities, they jumped to 4 to 13%, like in Rouen (2,465 € / m²), Nantes (3,410 € / m²), Lyon (4,591 € / m²), Bordeaux (4 € 736 / m²) or Rennes (€ 3,152 / m²).
An average price of € 9.452 / m² in Paris
With an average price of 9.452 € / m², Paris is now a city reserved for the better-off : 83% of buyers are middle or senior executives and liberal professions according to Century 21. And the share of buyers employed or workers is only 4.5%, while they still made 15% of purchases in 2009 , against 39% on average in France. Above all, "the share of middle management fell by 10% compared to 2017", underlines Laurent Vimont. These executives report in particular in the Hauts-de-Seine, where they represent 50.2% of buyers, while employees and workers have concluded 45.4% of sales in Seine-Saint-Denis, 46.5% in Essonne and even 57% in Val-d'Oise.