"The real estate market environment is deteriorating", estimates in its annual study, published January 8, the association Real Estate Prices (LPI), which includes thirteen major players in real estate (Seloger, Credit Housing, Credit Mutuel …). Like the mood of households, the situation has deteriorated in the year 2018 on the real estate market. "More affected by the decline in homeownership assistance, the new home market has contracted sharply, particularly for single-detached homes"says Michel Mouillart, professor of economics at Paris-Ouest and spokesperson for the LPI association.
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After peaking at 4.5% year-on-year in the summer of 2017, the price increase is slowing, quarter after quarter: it has fallen to 3.5% year-on-year at the end of 2018. It's in Limousin (+ 6%), in Brittany (+ 5.9%) and in Aquitaine (+ 5%) that the increases are the strongest. After the inflation of recent years, it is now necessary to mobilize on average 4.7 years of income to become owner, with extremes in Ile-de-France (6 years) and Champagne-Ardenne (3.1 years).
In other words, prices fell in 2018 in a quarter of cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. The largest decreases are observed at Le Mans (-13.9%), Saint-Etienne (-5.6%) and Amiens (-3%).
The winning cities of 2018 are Limoges, Rennes and Bordeaux, where prices jumped by more than 10%. The highest increases were recorded in Limoges (+ 12.8%), Rennes (+ 11.1%), Bordeaux (+ 10.2%), ahead of Lyon (+ 7.2%) and Paris (+ 6.8%). Among the smaller cities, the winners of 2018 are Pessac, Gironde (+ 20%) and Montreuil, Seine-Saint-Denis (+ 13.1%), which benefit from the attractiveness of Bordeaux and Paris.
"In many cities, such as Angers, Besançon, Clermont-Ferrand and Rouen, the increase looks like a catch-up after declines in 2017"relativizes Mr. Mouillart. This catch-up effect is clearly perceptible in Champagne-Ardenne and Limousin, two regions that recorded a net increase in activity (+ 9%), while the number of transactions in 2018 fell by 5%. , 8% nationally in 2018. The largest declines in activity were observed in Alsace, Aquitaine and Brittany.
For 2019, Michel Mouillart anticipates a 5% decline in the number of sales. "Rates are expected to remain low, but conditions for granting mortgages will play a big role, including their personal contribution requirements"says LPI's spokesperson.
An opinion shared by Alexandre Mirlicourtois, director of conjuncture and forecast at the institute Xerfi studies: "There will not be the same type of lengthening the term in 2019 as in 2018, nor will there be any relaxation of the granting conditions, which, in a context of very high prices, will undermine the purchasing power. first-time buyers and modest households. Transactions that peak around 960,000 units are expected to fall by 7% to 900,000 units.he says.
As for prices, Mr. Mouillart believes that the widening territorial divides between metropolises and the rest of the country will lead to very disparate developments. "Inequalities already noted between cities will further strengthen", he predicts.
For Xerfi, the rise should mark significantly the pace, from nearly 3% to 1.5% in the former. "A misleading rise, because this masks a decline in prices from the second half of the year, the tensions noted in a few large cities are no longer sufficient to offset the declines recorded elsewhere, especially in cities or in neighborhoods where it is primary buyers who make the market. The bull cycle of real estate is over, and in more and more cities »concludes M. Mirlicourtois.