the most and the least for 2019

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Activity, price, credit, housing policy … the National Real Estate Federation sets the prospects for the year by distributing the good points and red cards.

Bis repetita. The real estate market of the former has signed in 2018 an exceptional vintage, after a year 2017 already record. What will 2019 look like? The National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), through the voice of its president Jean-Marc Torrollion, delivered on January 23 during its annual review of the tracks on possible developments.

Most

. Rates

Powerful real estate market support factor, interest rates are, on average, always exceptionally low. They should continue to play their office this year. Anticipated for at least two years, their recovery is, at the beginning of the year, still not relevant. Some even predict that their rise would not occur before the end of the year. This indicator will, however, need to be particularly monitored.

. The prices

The deceleration of prices has begun. At the end of 2018, over one year, according to Fnaim's balance sheet (9,000 points of sale, ie around 40% of the intermediated market), the whole France price only increased by 2.7% to 2,620 euros per m², after + 4.2% in 2017. The increase is higher for apartments (+ 3.8% to 3.513 euros per sqm) than for the houses that are marking the pace (+ 1.5% to 2.176 euros per sqm).

For the whole of 2019, the Fnaim expects stable prices, even a slight decrease of -1% to -2%. This will give some buyers more oxygen. But the differences will remain very marked according to the territories. Metropolises that are economically and demographic attractive will continue to see their price rise.

. The Denormandie device

The Fnaim is full of praise on this new tax assistance to accelerate the renovation of old buildings and launched on the initiative of Julien Denormandie, the Minister of Housing and the City.

" I welcome this measure because there are few ministers who have understood that the market of the former rental was interesting and I believe in the success of this device "Said Jean-Marc Torrollion. "Denormandie" should, according to him, provide a triple effect: " maintain a quality housing, ensure a rebalancing between existing and new construction, accelerate the rehabilitation of old housing. This would regenerate investments, but also bring populations back to the localized city centers. "

The device, for which a decree is expected to fix the nature of the eligible works, should find its public of investors, " owners who know their cities and trust them. However, it will be necessary to be selective, know the city well and its rental capacity ".

. The mobility lease

While first mobility leases have been signed, the Federation welcomes this new type of lease established by the Elan law. According to her, the mobility lease should find his place In the various existing rental possibilities. For its part, the government wants to promote it because it hopes a transfer of leased goods in Airbnb to the lease mobility. The Elan law has also hardened part of the short-term rental. Thanks to an amendment proposed by Fnaim, the mobility lease does not require any change of use authorization, " c
e which is of great help in tight zone. "

The lessers

. Household confidence

Real estate market activity remained very strong in 2018. " But the loss of confidence of households in 2018, warns Jean-Marc Torrellion, suggests a beginning of inflection. Mortgage interest rates will not be enough to offset this slope. In December, according to INSEE data, household confidence in the economic situation fell sharply. It is down 18 points on the whole of 2018 and is close to the values ​​of the period from 2008 to 2015. From this point of view, it will also be necessary to pay close attention to the employment level indicator.

.The purchasing power

Last year, the continuation of the price increase (+ 2.7%) resulted in a decline in the purchasable area of ​​1.4 square meters on average, as the fall in rates (-10 points of base) failed to compensate. The purchasing power of households remains well above that of 2010, but nuance Fnaim.

These calculations are based on the assumption of a purchasing capacity of 1,000 euros per month over 20 years. Today, with the same budget of 160,000 euros borrowed over 20 years, you can buy 17 m² in Paris, 35 m in Bordeaux, 40 m² in Lyon, 49 m² in Lille, 52 m² in Nantes, 58 m² in Ajaccio, 67 m2 in Marseille, and up to 71 m² in Rouen.

With debt capacity reaching its maximum, the Federation also believes, and loan terms that can not be extended indefinitely, " l
price effect is starting to destabilize some households. "

. Property taxes

Attention to the weight of increasingly heavy local taxes. The regular increase in the property tax (+ 38.9% since 2003!), Which far exceeds that of the benchmark index of rents and inflation, could slow rental investment. " We will reach a plateau, says Jean-Marc Torrellion, that of the ability of owners to accept taxes that nibble more and more their rental profitability. "

. The framing of rents

The Fnaim denounces the return of the rents q
ui perpetuates an unproductive zoning policy ". It offers " a framework of the property tax which, it, evolves in a way completely decorrelated of the prices. "

Anne-Sophie Vion