(Updated with analyst comments, details)
PARIS, February 11 (More Bank) – Growth in the French economy is expected
reach 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the first estimate of the
Banque de France published on Monday, thanks to measures of support for purchasing power
decided by the Government in response to the "Yellow Vests" crisis, consider
This rate of 0.4% would represent a small acceleration compared to the
0.2% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2018
published by the Banque de France on 11 January and at
+ 0.3% given in first estimate on January 30 by INSEE for the GDP of
same last three months of 2018.
Economic activity should benefit for the first three months of
the year not only measures in favor of purchasing power such as
expansion of the activity premium or tax exemption for hours
additional, but also of a catch-up effect compared to the measures of the
second semester of 2018 (relief of salary quotations, etc.) which we do not have
given the effects on the moment, underlines Eric Heyer, Director at the Observatory
French Economic Conditions (OFCE).
OFCE will also probably anticipate 0.4% growth for
first three months of 2019 once its forecast is refined, or even 0.5%,
To support household consumption is added that of industrialists
French who seem particularly optimistic. They anticipate a rise in
10% of their investments this year, according to a survey published by INSEE
last Tuesday .
Philippe Waechter, director of economic studies at Ostrum AM,
is cautious about this figure, highlighting the European context
"worrying" that surrounds France. French business leaders can not
"go it alone," he says.
In fact, the British economy is stagnating, according to published figures
Added to this are the uncertainties related to Brexit, the degree of
slowdown in Chinese growth and the trade war between
United States and China, says Eric Heyer.
However, there are other positive points to consider, he adds:
a price of a barrel of oil in net decline and a euro that does not appreciate.
According to the French central bank, the growth in activity was
confirmed in January in the building. "The order books are very good
"In February, activity should continue to grow."
according to the professionals interviewed. In this area, the ICA activity index
stood at 105 in January, as in December.
In services, after a slowdown in January,
Business leaders expect an acceleration in February. The ICA index is at
100 in January after 101 in December.
In industry, activity would resume in February after a decline in
production in January, according to business leaders surveyed. Activity has
In particular, it has been half-masted in aeronautics, chemistry and metallurgy. AT
the reverse, says the Banque de France, the electrical equipment and
IT products remain "dynamic". The sector index is at 99 in
January against 102 in December.
Update on the French economy ECO / FR
Chart: Key figures of the economy http://tmsnrt.rs/2B7G9qP
(Danielle Rouquié, edited by Simon Carraud and Yves Clarisse)