"In short, hiring difficulties, supply shortages, US protectionist postures and social unrest around the end of the year have had negative effects in the region, but they are not calling into question a bottom-up, bullish trend of the activity "summarizes the report of this presentation.
The difficulty in recruiting qualified personnel is not limited to a few sectors of activity but generalized, with more or less intensity depending on the case. A phenomenon underlined by the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, during his visit to Bordeaux.
Great prospects for the industry
This almost general difficulty in recruiting seems to testify to the violence of impact of the 2008 financial crisis, which hit all over the place, pushing to reduce or postpone hiring programs and training in companies. With the recovery since 2015 of job-creating growth, the tension on recruitment is increasing mechanically without blocking the entire economic machine. The turnover of the regional industry thus increased + 2.9% in 2018.
Good news since the Banque de France specifies that this sector has suffered from many handicaps, such as supply problems in woodworking or the manufacture of electrical-electronic equipment, recruitment difficulties in shipbuilding or aeronautics. , which slow the pace of deliveries. The Banque de France is anticipating a 2019 year even more buoyant in the industrial sector, with a forecast of turnover at +4.4%. The workforce is expected to experience a slight erosion of the increase (+ 1.2% in 2018, + 0.9% expected in 2019). The situation is a little more tangent on the investment side, which, after falling by -4.9% in 2018, should jump by + 6.5% in 2019.
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The digitization of health draws market services
The increase in activity in market services continues even though a small drop in intensity is forecast for 2019. Turnover in this sector has thus increased by +4.6% in 2018 and should continue to increase, +3.6% in 2019. The Banque de France observes that this increase in activity is coupled with a proportional increase in the workforce, which rose by +4.4% in 2018 and is forecast at +2.5% in 2019. Once again, the investment component is the weak point of the balance sheet, even if the orientation is better. After a sharp decline of -6.8% in 2018, investment in market services is expected to be less negative in 2019, at -2.4%. The Banque de France explains that this sector of market services is particularly driven by the development of information systems and data hosting, particularly in the health sector.
Construction also benefited from a rise in activity in 2018, with sales up + 4.6%. The growth forecast is reduced to +1.5% for 2019. The Banque de France observes that this development confirms the robustness of the recovery in this construction sector (building / public works). Especially since the public works (dependent on the public order) and put in dry mode for ages, registered a very strong increase of their turnover with + 7.9%! While the building remained well oriented at +3.6%.
The fall in growth anticipated for 2019 would be linked to a "slight decline" expected in public works.The evolution of recruitment should pass his side of + 0.8% in 2018 to + 0.4% in 2019. On the other hand, the wait-and-see approach, solidly anchored in the current strategies, plunges investment: after a fall of -11.9% in 2018, the latter should show a fall of -11.1% in 2019.