After the recent "sell-off," which brought oil prices 20% below their highs of the year for both Brent and WTI, expert commodity analysts pulled out their calculator and turn their model to know at which level the crude will be processed in 2019. For JPMorgan, the answer is: 73 dollars a barrel of Brent. This is 12.6% lower than the previous forecast of $ 83.50. And in 2020, the barrel will trade at 64 dollars, says JPMorgan.
Scott Darling, the head of JP Morgan's Asia-Pacific oil and gas section, explained the new objective to CNBC with abundant supply from the United States, among other things. " The increase in demand will weigh, especially after the decision of OPEC in June to increase production Says Scott Darling.
It is therefore with some impatience that the market is waiting for the next meeting of OPEC, to be held December 6 in Vienna, Austria. Saudi Arabia calls for a reduction in production of around 1 million barrels a day to rebalance the market, but according to Scott Darling's calculations, the Organization must slash its production by 1.2 million barrels a day throughout the year 2019 if she wants to be able to correct market anomalies.
JP Morgan's new forecast comes days after US President Donald Trump, suddenly forgetting the Jamal Khashoggi affair, thanked Saudi Arabia for lowering oil prices.
Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $ 54, was just $ 82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 21, 2018
( ' Great ! Like a big Tax Reduction for America and the World. Enjoy! 54 dollars, it was 82. Thanks to Saudi Arabia, but let's go even lower! ")